Bahrain - Political to Economic Risk

Unrest in Bahrain started since February is not any more political fiasco; it actually put a heavy toll on Bahrain's economic growth & its perception in the outer world. If the ongoing "National Dialogue" fails then Bahrain will be emerged as more unstable, for both domestic & international business communities. On the other hand, Dubai & Doha will gain the most in case Bahrain's National Dialogue fails & instability prevails in Bahrain.

The 'National Dialogue' initiative started in Bahrain. The main Shia opposition Al-Wefaq also decided to participate.

About 300 people have been invited to attend the forum, which will meet three times a week until the end of July. They include political parties, civil and non-governmental organizations, opinion leaders and prominent figures. Surprisingly, there is a relatively lesser shia opposition representation, only twelve percent in National Dialogue moot. Out of 300 invitees, 35 are identified with the Shia opposition bloc while the single largest party, Al-Wefaq before resignations had 18 representatives in the 40 member Bahraini parliament, have only five representative seats.

Chairman of the National Dialogue who is a Parliament Speaker as well, Khalifa bin Ahmed al-Dhahrani said ”Discussions at the forum will revolve around four main themes: politics, economy, social and legal issues. The participants’ recommendations will be forwarded to the king, who will then issue an order to the executive and legislative authorities to take the necessary action”

Al-Wefaq, which is focusing its demands on a fully elected government, says recommendations should be put to a referendum. “We are heading toward dialogue, but we will not give up our demand for a government that represents the will of the people and a fair system of election,” said Ali Salman, al- Wefaq’s secretary-general.

Considering not enough representation of shia opposition groups in National dialogue raises the question on the serious attempt to resolve the political deadlock. There are also news reports of opposition harassment & suppression.

UAE Visa Extension for Foreign Property Investors - An Insight

UAE government extends the visa duration from six months to three years for foreign investors who own properties worth equal to or greater than AED1.0 million; it would be a multiple entry visit-visa, however they have to exit the country every six months.

The timing of the decision is very significant amid unrest in the regional countries; visa extension will allure the regional affluent, especially. From outside region, real estate investor mainly from Pakistan, India & United Kingdom will likely to take the advantage of the visa extension rule.

According to Dubai’s Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA), the top three real estate investors are Indian, Pakistani and UK nationals in total 4Q2010 property transactions. During earlier Dubai real estate boom which busted in 3Q2008, main investors in the real estate of Dubai were from Pakistan, India, Iran & United Kingdom.

Crude Oil Market - Update

International Energy Agency (IEA) initiative to release the Crude oil stockpiles up to 2 million barrel per day for the next 30 days period of total 60 million barrels, starting from the end of current week, in an anticipation that crude oil demand will be surged because of refineries high demand in summer season. It is expected that North America will release 50 percent of the total, with European countries releasing some 30 percent and Asian countries providing the remaining 20 percent.

This is the third time IEA – member country  stocks have been used, after 1990/1991 Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait & 2005’s Hurricane Katrina  

IEA’s initiative coincides with the Saudi Arabia’s announcement of incremental increase in oil production, however, Saudi Arabia’s increase in incremental production will take some time while IEA’s initiative will readily  available in the global crude oil market from the end of current week.

This initiative of IEA is sort of an intervention (by net consumers) while Saudi Arabia’s move will bring structural changes in the crude oil market (by net producer). By the time, Saudi Arabia’s incremental oil will be available in the market, IEA’s supply bridge the demand-supply gap in the mean time.