Saudi budget: break even oil price will increase to USD 88/bbl in 2011, 29% Y-o-Y increase

MARCH 31, 2011, 8:01 PM ET

Saudi Arabia, due to higher government spending this year, will need its oil to sell for $88 a barrel in 2011 for its government to break even–up from $68 last year, according to Institution of International Finance

Only a decade ago, Saudi Arabia was able to balance its budget with oil prices averaging $20-$25 a barrel.

The kingdom, in response to the unrest spreading throughout the Middle East and North Africa, is boosting government spending to provide new social benefits for its people. The support for housing units, unemployment benefits and wage hikes for public workers (among a long list of measures) will contribute to a 31% increase in government spending in 2011 from a year earlier.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, gets more than four-fifths of its government revenue from the petroleum sector. Under an average price for Brent oil of $110 per barrel, equal to about $108 a barrel for Saudi crude, the Saudi government would still maintain a surplus of 6.7% in 2011.

Saudi output accounts for about 10% of global oil supply. With most of the world’s spare production capacity, it influences the price of oil more than any other producer — and has taken on greater importance amid unrest in Libya, Egypt and other oil-producing countries.

MENA Region - Extreme Water Security Risk

The MENA region has vast reserves of petroleum and natural gas but they don't have water.

According to the Oil and Gas Journal (January, 2009), the MENA region has 60% of the world's oil reserves (811 billion barrels) and 45% of the world's natural gas reserves (2,869 Trillion cubic feet).

The scarcity of water supplies in the MENA region is very alarming & will heap on the risk of yet-more political tensions and put pressure on food & oil prices.

Maplecroft’s “Water Security Risk Index”,  rates 18 countries at 'extreme risk', with 12 located in the MENA region

Extreme Risky Countries in terms of Water Security Risk
Rank	Country	Region	Risk Level
1	Mauritania	EMEA	Extreme
2	Kuwait	MENA	Extreme
3	Jordan	MENA	Extreme
4	Egypt	MENA	Extreme
5	Israel	MENA	Extreme
6	Niger	EMEA	Extreme
7	Iraq	MENA	Extreme
8	Oman	MENA	Extreme
9	United Arab Emirates	MENA	Extreme
10	Syria	MENA	Extreme
11	Saudi Arabia	MENA	Extreme
12	Uzbekistan	EMEA	Extreme
13	Moldova	EMEA	Extreme
14	Libya	MENA	Extreme
15	Turkmenistan	EMEA	Extreme
16	Djibouti	EMEA	Extreme
17	Tunisia	MENA	Extreme
18	Algeria	MENA	Extreme
Note: MENA = Middle East & North Africa; EMEA= Europe, Middle East & Africa
Source: Maplecroft, March 2011

Water availability per person in the Middle East is about 1,200 cubic meters, less than 20 percent of the world average [World Bank]

The scarcity of water is problematic for political and humanitarian reasons as well as for the oil industry because:

·         Eight of the twelve OPEC nations are within the MENA region

·         Out of the 12 OPEC member countries, six countries -- Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Saudi Arabia and the UAE -- are in the ‘Extreme risk’ category, while a further two --- Iran and Qatar - are rated 'high risk.' Collectively, these countries produced approximately 30% of global oil production in 2009, whilst the countries at extreme and high risk collectively produced 45% of global oil in 2009.

·         Large quantities of water is used in the production of Oil. ‘Lift Water’ process is an example

United Nations project that some 30 nations around the world will be "water scarce" by 2025. Eighteen of those are in the MENA.

As water becomes scarcer in the MENA region, each country will be encouraged to safeguard its supplies by taking measures the other may see as provocative, potentially exacerbating or sparking conflict situations.

Technological innovations, including the desalination of salt water, may however alleviate some of these risks.  

According to UAE govt., UAE spends nearly Dh11.8 billion per year on the production of desalinated water to ensure its fast growing needs of drinking water and offset its dwindling reserves. The investments cover nearly 70 sea desalination plants, accounting for around 14% of the world’s total output of desalinated water

The annual volume of desalinated water in Saudi Arabia is planned to double from 1.05bn m3 to 2.07m3 between 2010 and 2015 under a 5 year infrastructure spending plan

 Gulf accounts for nearly 41 percent of the world’s total desalinated water output 

BRICS

South Africa and India have the highest water security risk amongst BRICS countries

BRICS in terms of Water Security
Rank	Country	Region	Risk Level
26	South Africa	EMEA	High
28	India	Asia	High
82	China	Asia	Medium
148	Brazil	Latin America	Low
159	Russia	EMEA	Low

Source: Maplecroft, March 2011

Next 11 - N11

Of the N11 countries, six are at high or extreme risk. These are Egypt (4), Pakistan (23), Bangladesh (29), Iran (39), Mexico (44) and Vietnam (45)

Europe

Of the EU27 countries, there are no countries at extreme water security risk

The scarcity of water could result in higher food & oil prices in the medium to long term.

GEM Equity Funds Outflow continues

In the week ended 23 Feb 2011, EM & developed equity market seen outflows.

 

Over the past five weeks, ~USD 20bn has been pulled out of emerging-market equity funds.

 

 

USD mn	GEM equity	Developed Equity	GEM Fixed income
2-Feb-11	(7,000)	6,600	n/a
9-Feb-11	(3,000)	4,600	(477)
16-Feb-11	(5,500)	12,130	(741)

  

    23-Feb –11         (1,890)                      (1,930)                                     96

 

Source: EPFR

 

Comment:

If Oil prices sustained at high level then it would be negative for US, severe for EM Asian countries (Except Malaysia & Vietnam) & developed Europe. (Mainly because of Net oil importers, secondly EM Asian countries high food & fuel weights in CPI basket, I also have explained the reasons in detail  in my last research note “Oil impact on World growth”)

In BRIC, Russia is the only country which benefits from high oil prices. Interestingly, Russia is the only EM country in World’s top 15 Oil exporters.

On the other hand, if Oil prices sustained at high level its positive for E&P sector & commodity linked securities. Therefore we would see inflows to energy funds & companies whose profits linked to commodities.

 

Regards,

Irfan