UAE - Non Oil Producing Sectors Growth Analysis

Bahrain - Political to Economic Risk

Unrest in Bahrain started since February is not any more political fiasco; it actually put a heavy toll on Bahrain's economic growth & its perception in the outer world. If the ongoing "National Dialogue" fails then Bahrain will be emerged as more unstable, for both domestic & international business communities. On the other hand, Dubai & Doha will gain the most in case Bahrain's National Dialogue fails & instability prevails in Bahrain.

The 'National Dialogue' initiative started in Bahrain. The main Shia opposition Al-Wefaq also decided to participate.

About 300 people have been invited to attend the forum, which will meet three times a week until the end of July. They include political parties, civil and non-governmental organizations, opinion leaders and prominent figures. Surprisingly, there is a relatively lesser shia opposition representation, only twelve percent in National Dialogue moot. Out of 300 invitees, 35 are identified with the Shia opposition bloc while the single largest party, Al-Wefaq before resignations had 18 representatives in the 40 member Bahraini parliament, have only five representative seats.

Chairman of the National Dialogue who is a Parliament Speaker as well, Khalifa bin Ahmed al-Dhahrani said ”Discussions at the forum will revolve around four main themes: politics, economy, social and legal issues. The participants’ recommendations will be forwarded to the king, who will then issue an order to the executive and legislative authorities to take the necessary action”

Al-Wefaq, which is focusing its demands on a fully elected government, says recommendations should be put to a referendum. “We are heading toward dialogue, but we will not give up our demand for a government that represents the will of the people and a fair system of election,” said Ali Salman, al- Wefaq’s secretary-general.

Considering not enough representation of shia opposition groups in National dialogue raises the question on the serious attempt to resolve the political deadlock. There are also news reports of opposition harassment & suppression.